G-8 summit’s greenhouse decision ‘unsafe’

Environmentalists downplay a decision, made by the most powerful countries in the world, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2050.

The summit, held in Japan, decided to set the goal as such so that it was compliant with “economic growth and energy security,” as said by leaders in a statement. The leaders also said in order for the goal to be reached they will need the help of all major economies, including India and China.

Critics argue 50 percent reduction in the given time frame isn’t enough. The year 2020 is highly recommended as a safe target for emissions to be cut in half.

Members of Oxfam International, a group that dedicates itself to fighting poverty and injustice, dressed as leading officials and held balloons representing carbon emissions in an act to demonstrate a more serious situation regarding greenhouse emissions. “At this rate, by 2050 the world will be cooked and the G-8 leaders will be long forgotten,” Anthony Hill, a spokesperson for Oxfam International, stated. “The G-8’s endorsement of a tepid 50 by 50 climate goal leaves us with a 50-50 chance of a climate meltdown. Rather than a breakthrough, the G-8’s announcement on 2050 is another stalling tactic.”

The European Union is more eager to reach a higher target. They would like to cut the emissions as they were in 1990 by 25 to 40 percent by 2020. Japan, the United States, and Canada are opposed to such a target.

Ben Wikler, a member of the environmental campaign AVAAZ, blames the governments’ childishness and lack of responsibility for the decision. “The failure to act on 2020 targets is a failure to take responsibility, and our members around the world feel that there is a childishness to not taking responsibility.”

The director of the WWF Global Climate Initiative, Kim Carstensen, agrees the decision was an unsafe one.  “So little progress after a whole year of minister meetings and negotiations is not only a wasted opportunity, it falls dangerously short of what is needed to protect people and nature from climate change.”

The United States was the only party among 175 to reject the Kyoto Protocol, a plan to limit atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, ten years ago. A reason given for the opposition was the protocol did not restrict emissions in India and China. Last year, at the Bali conference, the United States signed an agreement for negotiations involving a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. The White House claimed their effort alone is useless. “The negotiations must proceed on the view that the problem of climate change cannot be adequately addressed through commitments for emissions cuts by developed countries alone. Major developing economies must likewise act.”

In 2009, in Copenhagen, Denmark, there will be another Bali pact. The event is designed to be a guide for more climate talks.

The Future of Asia- Will Water be the New Oil?: Discussions at Singapore International Water Week

Singapore International Water Week, which ended June 27^th, ended with $270 million US dollars worth of deals. Governments, water companies, and utility providers were among those signing the 27 agreements.
Environment and Water Resources Minister Yaacob Ibrahim describes the focus of the meeting as an effort to develop into a platform for water solutions on a global scale. Ibrahim referred to the figures resulting from the meeting as encouraging.
New ground was broken in the meeting. Perhaps one of the most crucial is the development of a water fund which will bring $320 million US dollars worth of investment for water projects in Asia. The Asian Development Bank is predicted to raise this figure higher, as they have pledged to help regional states raise their investments in water security to $20 billion US dollars.

Singapore water companies also won significant contracts. A consortium comprising PUB and CPG Consultants as well as Pico Art International secured a contract to design the King Abdullah Water Centre in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Other significant contracts were signed for Singapore. The King Abdullah Watre Centre was proposed to be built in Ridyah, Saudi Arabia, and was signed by PUB and CPG Consultants as well as Pico Art International. Yaacob further commented the interest in the meeting was better than expected. Regarding Singapore, he commented “we’re holding this for the first time. Hopefully, more will realise that there’s value in coming to Singapore. We were pleasantly surprised that more companies wanted to come on board for the exhibition… they see there is a scope for making business deals.”

Of course, solutions are still actively being saught in addition to the new projects. Yaacob states “going forward, we are looking for new technological solutions… how can we lower some of the energy costs in terms of desalination? We will mine the papers that have been presented and see whether there are new ideas of achieving some of these water solutions.”

Delegates from overseas discuss Singapore’s NeWater technology in the meeting. Singapore’s minister says “I spoke to some of the ministers from the Middle East. Recycling is now on the top of their mind. For them, water is the new oil… They all ask about recycling.  “‘How do you do it?’ they ask. We told them briefly that you need an ecosystem, you need a demand, you need a technical system to help you recycle water. They are keen. “So, for the average Singaporean, I think you have to feel proud that Singapore has been able to achieve something that we can share with the rest of the world.”
Over 8,500 delegates and other visitors attended the meeting, which spanned over five days. The Singapore International Water week will be an annual event. Next year’s meeting is scheduled to focus on the significance of infrastructure in water management, supply, and environment sustainability.

A common Asian currency: Stronger financial resilience?

Asia is hit badly by the current recession in the United States. Investors are shying away, stock markets are down, thousands are losing jobs.

In this scenario, there is once again talk of evolving a common currency for Asia for safeguarding its financial stability. But there are many hurdles on its way.

One is the `hegemony’ of stronger states. Smaller Southeast Asian states feel threatened by China’s growing economic power and Japan’s isolationist economic policy. They also question whether the currencies of Australia and New Zealand should be included with India. Japan is not too comfortable with China’s emergence and the fact that the yen may be overshadowed by the yuan. India too has been so far cool to the proposal for a common ASEAN currency, holding that it would require more coordinated efforts on the parts of all the participants and removal of many political and technical obstacles.

Some argue that it is impossible to replicate the euro experience because Europe had sorted out the question of hegemony long before the question of a single currency was mooted. The ideal preconditions that existed in Europe prior to the introduction of the euro either don’t exist in Asia or are only emerging. There were several factors that bound the European nations together. They included high trade interdependencies, Common acceptance of basic political and social values, fairly even economic development and comparable living standards. Even with common objectives, it took half a century for Europe to achieve a single currency.

There are a few such binding factors among Asian countries.However, conditions for a common Asian currency are improving. The past few years have witnessed higher trade interdependencies in East Asia than ever before. Trade volume among the ASEAN countries has swelled. Trade between India and China increased manifold over the past few years. foreign remittances from Japan and Singapore are on the rise.

But efforts towards a common currency have to be preceded by a common single market. ASEAN has already initiated steps toward evolving a mechanism for exchange-rate stability for promoting financial stability in Asia. More steps remain to be taken toward creation of a unified currency structure in Asia.

The benefits of an eventual single currency are numerous. It will increase market transparency by making prices more easily comparable. Cross-border transactions will also become more attractive as market operators will no longer be exposed to exchange-rate risks, and costs associated with currency conversion will be eliminated.

Moreover, single currency will go a long way in promoting political union in Asia. But it will be a long-drawn-out process. Europe has worked towards political and economic integration for over 50 years before the birth of a single European currency in 2001.

East Asia’s Future in Science & Tech

While internet coverage of East Asia will probably not be complete by 2020 - some rural communities may not even have electricity by then - an increasing number of East Asians will be regular users of the internet, especially among younger people. Societies and economies will deepen their dependence on the internet as a conduit for communication, business and administration. The internet will be progressively engineered to better cope with random disruptions, but it will continue to be vulnerable to targeted disruptions of key nodes. As developed countries harden their internet nodes against random and purposive attacks, it could begin to magnify the exposure of developing countries to cyberspace ‘hiccups’.

Communications technology, including the internet and mobile telephony, may affect political outcomes. Though the dissemination of information and ideas through the internet may have peaked, as technological advances are likely to provide governments with a greater ability to control information flows, communications technology will interconnect populations as never before, providing people with multiple, independent sources of information about the government and society.

The internet may also see traditional political machines in technologically-advanced countries lose ground to younger generations able to communicate electronically with voters. In China and elsewhere in East Asia the internet may also act as an incubator and disseminator of nationalist and extremist views.

East Asia will continue to try to develop centres of scientific and technical innovation to rival those in the US and Europe. Many talented East Asians will continue to be attracted to the big centres of research in Europe and North America, although a reverse tendency is beginning to develop, where East Asian scientists who have worked in the US are beginning to return to their own countries, taking their experience and expertise with them. Most East Asian countries’ already-impressive capacity to adopt and use innovations from elsewhere will probably quicken, sometimes resulting in East Asian countries’ picking up and applying American technological breakthroughs faster and more effectively than US industry can.

Asia-Pacific looks inward for talent

Companies based in the Asia-Pacific region are increasingly looking to develop home-grown executive talent rather than relying on expatriates brought in from other areas of the world.

Of the 55 Asia-Pacific organisations surveyed for a report by The Conference Board, almost eight out of 10 are seeking to accelerate their talent development programmes.

Meanwhile, despite making cuts in many non-operational budget areas, almost half of these organisations are maintaining or increasing the financial resources they make available for leadership development initiatives.

According to the report, firms in Asia-Pacific believe that home-grown executives can have a greater impact on company performance than expatriates and do not cost the company nearly as much.

“One reason for reducing expatriates and international assignees is based on the premise that in the lifecycle of most businesses, the localisation of leadership has a positive impact on performance,” says Andrew N. Bell, Program Director for the Asia-Pacific HR Council and author of the report.

“This positive impact results from a range of factors in which local leadership is more likely to have a deeper understanding and familiarity with the needs and expectations of local consumers and clients, local business infrastructure such as distribution channels and external relations, including with the government and media.

“Also, language may be a critical factor. An inability to work in the local language can be a serious impediment in some aspects of business operations.”

Another factor in the reduction of expatriate numbers is the cost of their assignments. Expatriates receiving salary supplements and additional benefits, such as home leave, school tuition and a housing subsidy, can cost the business at least double what a local executive would cost.

But companies looking to develop local talent face a number of challenges.

Firstly, the supply of local leaders is seriously limited, creating severe competition for talent. For example, Shanghai and Bangalore have turnover rates in some sectors that reach greater than 40 per cent per year.

As a result, salary inflation is also significant. Absolute salary levels for some talented executives in Shanghai are equal to or greater than their counterparts in Singapore or London.

Secondly, during initial investments or expansion in a new market, it is essential for many organisations to import leadership competence and technical expertise into Asia-Pacific. The first wave of imported leadership capability normally is followed by a phased reduction, as locals are trained and developed as successors. This process often takes longer than planned.

Other barriers to developing leaders in Asia-Pacific mentioned by companies include the capabilities of HR professionals in some locations; mismatches between location of talent and business opportunities; preservation of established company cultures, networks, and behaviours; low mobility within region for some; and competition for talent leading to high turnover and escalating salaries.

Chinese, Japanese Power Dynamics

The roles of and interaction between the region’s major powers - China, Japan and the US -are likely to undergo significant change by 2020. The US’s military, entrepreneurial, economic, scientific and technological strengths should ensure it remains the predominant power in East Asia for some time, though its ability to translate its power into influence will depend on how skilfully it manages its wide array of regional relationships.

US security relationships in the region are likely to endure, though changes in the US forward presence, and in US and regional threat perceptions, may lead to a loosening of these ties.

China’s influence in East Asia will loom ever larger - whether it succeeds or fails. Between now and 2020, China is likely to develop even more into an economic and political centre of gravity, exercising a growing influence on the calculations of other states.

Growing Chinese influence will not require nor develop into a network of formal alliances. Its regional initiatives will increasingly be followed by others, and East Asian states will become more careful to avoid crossing its interests.

The US and China have strong incentives to avoid confrontation. Their relationship inevitably contains elements of competition. But China needs the US to remain strategically engaged in North Asia as a restraint on Japan’s military and nuclear development.

The US, in turn, looks to China to exert a restraining influence on North Korea. In the short term, shared economic interests are likely to outweigh economic frictions. But in the longer term, constructive economic relations will depend on the state of the wider political and security relationship.

Rising nationalism in China, and fears in the US of China as an emerging strategic competitor, could fuel an increasingly antagonistic relationship, with Taiwan the likeliest catalyst for crisis. Despite awareness of the risks in all three capitals, the potential for miscalculation will remain. A combination of factors, including China’s military capability developments and the 2008 Olympics, point to 2008-2010 as a particularly dangerous period.

China’s growing regional power and influence will pose a dilemma for Japan. Japan’s responses could include competition with China, drawing closer to Washington or attempting a more assertive regional role. A key determinant will be the nature of any final settlement on the Korean peninsula. Nevertheless, Japan’s will and capacity to play a larger role in the region will remain open to question.

All regional states want to avoid having to choose between the US and China. The US will remain important for economic and security reasons, and to forestall the possibility of Chinese hegemony. But accommodating China’s rising power will increasingly be their main pre-occupation.

East Asia: Natural Resources and the Environment

Most states in East Asia are reliant on energy supplies external to the region, and will become more so. The demand for energy will outstrip domestic reserves even in oil-producing states like Indonesia. East Asian states will grow more dependent on Middle Eastern oil, but will seek to diversify supply through Central Asian and other sources of energy.

This, and the tendency for East Asian states to take equity in resource projects, means that Japan and China will take an even greater interest in developments in important oil-producing regions than they are now. China in particular will be determined to protect its sea lanes to the Middle East. East Asia’s thirst for oil and gas is also likely to allow Russia to exercise resource diplomacy in regional politics.

Population growth in Southeast Asia and environmental damage across the region mean that East Asia will see a rise in tensions over common pool resources, such as water and fish. Some states will be pushed towards open confrontation. Water and fishing disputes are already common and these may intensify, particularly during supply emergencies.

The effect of the damming of the Mekong on fragile ecosystems - and the economic activity they support - downstream could lead to tension between China and its southern neighbours, testing China’s commitment to regionalism. The search for new sources of key resources, like hydrocarbons, could lead to further conflicts over territoriality.

It is likely that irregularities and shifts in rainfall patterns will continue and perhaps increase to 2020. An ongoing northward movement of monsoon activity, or the foreseeable increase in the ‘dwell times’ of El Nino, could see an increase in droughts and water shortages in Southeast Asia and seriously affect crop yields. These patterns will have a significant impact on regions in which there is a dependence on subsistence agriculture, or where there is existing environmental damage such as erosion and deforestation, or where rivers and other water courses have been diverted into large infrastructure projects. Many of the environmental problems in East Asia will be worsened by their cumulative nature, such the effect of land-clearing practices on water supplies and salination in parts of Java.

Asia Hurt By Western Ageing Populations

The rapidly ageing population in the developed world could hurt Asian economies as precious funds are channelled to burgeoning pension budgets.How European countries and the United States especially respond to the challenges arising from their ageing populations will impact on the rest of the world including Asia, Richard Jackson, from the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies said.

“If the affluent economies fail to confront their own ageing challenge, the crisis could engulf the rest of the world,” Jackson told a forum on ageing organised by a Singapore think-tank, the Institute of Policy Studies.

“The course they choose will shape not only their own destinies but East Asia’s as well,” he said.

“East Asia may experience widespread capital shortages as funds are diverted from financing productive investments in Hong Kong and Singapore to financing pension deficits in Berlin and Washington.”

This would result in shrinking Asian exports to the developed economies which would lead to slower growth in Asia, Jackson said.

He told the forum the world cannot avoid the challenge of an ageing population, caused essentially by lower fertility rates and higher life expectancy.

“The world stands on the threshold of a great demographic revolution. It’s called global ageing and it is about to turn the world on its head,” he said.

“Over the next few decades, the rapid ageing of the developed world population will impose vast new costs on public budgets, bankrupting any government that fails to prepare.”

Failure to respond adequately would also have a huge impact on the global economy and the established world order, he said.

“It threatens to usher in widespread labour shortages and slower economic growth,” Jackson said.

“It could destabilise global financial markets and it may even overturn the geopolitical order.”

Jackson warned that time was running out for policymakers to deal with the issue.

“We can engage the challenge constructively or we can wait for the challenge to overtake us but we cannot avoid it,” he said.

The fallout from a failure to deal with a graying population could hurl the global financial markets into turmoil.

“Global ageing may also usher in an era of greater instability for world financial markets,” Jackson said.

“As retiring baby boomers begin cashing out assets, some economists predict that the markets will experience a great depreciation,” he said.

“At the same time, government borrowings to finance retirement benefits could wreak financial havoc, widening pension deficits could shatter regional economic and monetary unions like the EMU (European Monetary Union).”

Even the social impact could be grave as companies sought to fill the gap in labour shortages by importing workers.

“One way or another, businesses will be looking for ways to tap into the developing world’s surplus labour,” he said.

“If they can’t import the workers, they will export the jobs. Now make no mistake, the potential labour shortages are large.”

Jackson said this could lead to conflicts between countries competing to get the best workers as developed countries increased their intake of skilled migrants.

It also raised the prospect of “a new colonialism in which an ageing developed world siphons off the best educated and the most ambitious workers from younger developing countries,” he said.