East Asia’s Future in Science & Tech

While internet coverage of East Asia will probably not be complete by 2020 - some rural communities may not even have electricity by then - an increasing number of East Asians will be regular users of the internet, especially among younger people. Societies and economies will deepen their dependence on the internet as a conduit for communication, business and administration. The internet will be progressively engineered to better cope with random disruptions, but it will continue to be vulnerable to targeted disruptions of key nodes. As developed countries harden their internet nodes against random and purposive attacks, it could begin to magnify the exposure of developing countries to cyberspace ‘hiccups’.

Communications technology, including the internet and mobile telephony, may affect political outcomes. Though the dissemination of information and ideas through the internet may have peaked, as technological advances are likely to provide governments with a greater ability to control information flows, communications technology will interconnect populations as never before, providing people with multiple, independent sources of information about the government and society.

The internet may also see traditional political machines in technologically-advanced countries lose ground to younger generations able to communicate electronically with voters. In China and elsewhere in East Asia the internet may also act as an incubator and disseminator of nationalist and extremist views.

East Asia will continue to try to develop centres of scientific and technical innovation to rival those in the US and Europe. Many talented East Asians will continue to be attracted to the big centres of research in Europe and North America, although a reverse tendency is beginning to develop, where East Asian scientists who have worked in the US are beginning to return to their own countries, taking their experience and expertise with them. Most East Asian countries’ already-impressive capacity to adopt and use innovations from elsewhere will probably quicken, sometimes resulting in East Asian countries’ picking up and applying American technological breakthroughs faster and more effectively than US industry can.

Nanotechnology key to China’s future economic success

“China is betting that their growing investment in nanoscience will help them capture a large share of what shortly will become a $3 trillion global market in nanotech manufactured goods, and that breakthroughs in nanotechnology research and commercialization will confer economic superpower status on the country that attains first mover advantage in this cutting-edge technology,” stated Richard P. Appelbaum, professor at the University of California at Santa Barbara. “The Chinese government clearly understands that enhanced nanotechnology research capacity and marketable innovation go hand-in-hand. Both are key to their strategy for future commercial success, economic competitiveness, and continued economic growth.”

Dr. Appelbaum made his remarks at an event co-sponsored by the Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies, the Asia Program, the China Environment Forum, and the Program on Science, Technology, America and the Global Economy, at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. The event, “Nanotechnology in China: Ambitions and Realities,” focused on China’s current and future capabilities to become one of the world’s leading nanotechnology nations. The panel included Denis Fred Simon, an expert on Chinese science and technology policy and vice president of Academic Affairs at the State University of New York. It was moderated by Evan Michelson, research associate at the Wilson Center’s Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies.

“Worldwide, nanotechnology has emerged as a critical area for science and technology competition-much like the race to be the first country to put a man on the moon. China and the U.S. are both big players in the nanotech race. Each faces a number of significant competitive challenges and collaborative opportunities, including the need for internationally coordinated risk research strategies and effective oversight mechanisms,” said Michelson. “It would be unfortunate if government agencies in both countries squandered this unique opportunity to help direct nanotechnology at a relatively early stage along a responsible path. Both nations need to work together to help engender public confidence in the private and public sectors ability to handle possible nanotechnology risks and to increase the capacity of public institutions to deal with the long-term implications posed by this cutting-edge innovation.”

Dr. Simon situated China’s nanotechnology research and investment capacity within the context of the country’s long-term science and technology strategy. “China recently released plans to radically increase its research and development capabilities over the next fifteen years. It will be a grand experiment to see if the country can become a global innovation center. Central to these prospects are a number of key frontier technologies-including nanotechnology-aimed at ensuring the country’s long-term competitiveness as it faces various funding, management, and organizational obstacles.”

A senior Department of Commerce official recently claimed that China is rapidly “gaining on” the United States in nanotechnology. This news comes on top of the latest Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecast that China will have spent more on research and development (R&D) than Japan in the past two years, making it the world’s second highest investor in R&D after the United States.

Michelson concluded by noting that “China’s current nanotechnology research, education and manufacturing investments are only the tip of the iceberg. Over the coming years, there is the real potential for China to rapidly advance in making new nanotech scientific discoveries that lead to commercializing new, innovative nano-based products that are produced by its burgeoning, highly skilled and relatively cheap workforce. Now is the time for the United States and others around the world to cooperate with the Chinese on risk research and work toward getting a suitable oversight system in place from the start to ensure a safe and level commercial playing field.”

Dr. Appelbaum is professor of Sociology and Global and International Studies at the University of California at Santa Barbara. He currently serves as director of the M.A. Program in Global & International Studies, and serves on the Executive Committee of the Center for Nanotechnology in Society. He is also co-director of the Center for Global Studies in the Institute for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Research.

Dr. Simon is the provost and vice president for Academic Affairs of the Levin Graduate Institute of International Relations and Commerce under the State University of New York in New York City. He has written and lectured widely regarding innovation, high technology development, foreign investment and corporate strategy in the Pacific Rim and is frequently quoted in the Western and Asian business press regarding commercial and technology trends in China, Hong Kong and the Asia-Pacific region.

Mr. Michelson is a research associate for the Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, DC. Michelson received his masters degree in international science and technology policy from The George Washington University.

InfoComms & Tech for the Future Digital Economy

The World Information Technology and Services Alliance (WITSA) is calling on governments and the information communications and technology (ICT) industry to work together to address important challenges facing the future of the digital economy.Maximizing the efficient use of energy, opening global markets, ensuring Internet governance, and the provision of relevant ICT education are four key issues that must be addressed if the ICT is to progress further, said Jim Poisant, secretary-general of WITSA.

Speaking to delegates Monday at the World Congress on Information Technology (WCIT) in the Kuala Lumpur, Poisant acknowledged the ICT industry continues to make outstanding contributions in the area of energy efficiency. WITSA is the organizer of the WCIT, which runs from May 18 to 22.

“But the ICT industry needs to implement energy-saving measures that will further protect the environment,” Poisant said. “This includes maximizing energy efficiency in products and services, including data centres and the utilization of smart building technology.”

Other measures include reducing business traveling in favor of tele-working and teleconferencing, and using alternative energy sources, he added.

According to Poisant, opening up more markets to ICT services will enhance economic development efforts and growth by improving their productivity. This, he added, will also attract foreign direct investment.

“The WITSA respectfully recommends that all nations, which have been reluctant to open their markets to ICT service, do so expeditiously,” he said.

The elimination of tariffs and customs on ICT services will give businesses and governments the ability to obtain the benefits of the latest ICT quickly, without having to make major investments, Poisant explained.

“We encourage WTO (World Trade Organization) members to complete the Doha Round of trade negotiations this year, and sign on to the Information Technology Agreement,” he said.

On Internet governance, Poisant said there is a need to ensure the Internet is kept opened and accessible to all societies, and to ensure the reliable access to secure information communication networks and services.

“The multi-stakeholder nature of Internet governance must be upheld, and the [development] of the Internet must continue to receive industry participation and involvement,” he said.

Poisant added that the WITSA also advocates the use of ICT to provide education to those who may not have the opportunity to receive it.

“We [also] need to work together to ensure our educational systems are modernized to prepare our citizens to succeed in the digital economy,” he said, noting that education should be responsive to the needs of the ICT industry.

Asia, EMEA surpasses Americas
The WITSA also released Monday its latest Digital Planet report, a publication that provides statistics on global ICT spending and trends across 75 countries.

According to Poisant, total ICT spending will enter a period of moderating growth through 2011 as a result of the slowing economies of developed nations, which are beginning to cool their demand for IT products.

The report noted that total ICT spending will grow more than double to US$4.4 trillion in 2011, from about US$2.1 trillion in 2003. The Americas, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and the Asia-Pacific (AP) region, will grow through the forecast interval, the WITSA report added.

Poisand said: “The Americas will grow the lowest at 4 percent per year from 2007 through 2011, while Asia-Pacific and EMEA will post compound annual growth of 10.5 and 5 percent, respectively.”

“During 2008, purchases of ICT products and services within EMEA will surpass the Americas. With its double digit growth rate, the Asia-Pacific share of ICT spending will rise from 25.6 percent to 30.1 percent in 2011.”

Asia hints at mobile tech’s future

If you want a glimpse of what you’ll be doing with your cell phone in two or three years, you don’t need a time machine. You simply need to travel to Japan or South Korea.For years, those two countries have been the world leaders in cell phone technology adoption, with enthusiastic consumers who are willing to try new services as well as mobile operators that exert significant influence in the market to make sure new services can accommodate large-scale demand.

As a result, many of the trends that we in the United States see as “coming soon” are already being used by millions of consumers in Japan and South Korea. Japan, for example, is way ahead of the rest of the world in its use of near-field communication technology, or NFC, which allows you to swipe your phone near a sensor to make payments for products and services.

Most handsets sold by NTT DoCoMo, the largest cell phone operator in Japan, already sport integrated NFC chips. Commuters using public transportation wave their phones in front of an NFC sensor at commuter stops instead of buying a physical ticket. The technology is also used at convenience stores, restaurants, and even in taxis. And in the bustling train stations of Tokyo, NFC technology is used to allow commuters to pay for and unlock lockers without inserting coins.

“Seamless instant payment instead of fishing around for change as you leave a taxi is a nice detail that contributes to urban convenience,” said Douglas Krone, CEO of Dynamism, an importer of cool gadgets, including laptops and cell phones, from Japan.

But that’s not all. QR codes–or “quick response” two-dimensional bar codes–are also widely used in Japan to wirelessly transfer information that might otherwise be manually entered into a phone. A QR code also can automatically launch a Web page. Cell phone users simply take a picture of the code, which can be printed on business cards or in print advertisements, with their phones, and the information stored in the QR bar code can either be automatically imported to the phone or used to launch a Web page or send an e-mail.

Broadcast mobile TV, which is expected to be a huge new application in the U.S., has already been offered in Japan and South Korea for more than a year. Today, close to 6 million people in those countries are watching TV on tiny cell phone screens.

In South Korea, mobile operators have been delivering broadcast mobile TV using a standard called terrestrial-digital multimedia broadcast (T-DMB), a technology that has little appeal in other parts of the world. In Europe, operators such as Telecom Italia and Vodafone are using services based on a competing standard, called DVB-H, to deliver mobile TV. U.S. operators Verizon Wireless and AT&T have signed deals to use chipmaker Qualcomm’s MediaFlo network, which is based on proprietary broadcast technology.

The handset as PC and gaming device
Japan and South Korea also offer the most advanced handsets in the market. Japan’s NTT DoCoMo recently said it will offer a new gaming phone that uses motion-sensing technology similar to that found in Nintendo’s Wii game console. The new product, due out this month, is the result of collaboration among tech heavyweights Mitsubishi Electric, Matsushita Electric Industrial (Panasonic), and Sharp.

The pervasiveness of cell phones in Japanese and South Korean cultures has also spawned related products and services. Because people depend on cell phones for so much, a dead battery can completely isolate a customer. As a result, convenience stores in Japan offer mobile-phone power options such as quick-charge stations or supplemental battery add-ons that will carry the user through the day.

While Japan and South Korea could offer insight as to the types of applications that may eventually come to market in the U.S., experts say it’s no guarantee that every application or phone that is hot in these markets will find a following in the U.S.

“There are a number of social differences between the Japanese or South Korean consumer and a consumer from the U.S.,” said Charles Golvin, an analyst with Forrester Research. “For one, people in Japan spend a lot more time on public transportation than Americans do. Sitting on the train for two hours every day commuting to and from work provides a lot of time to consume media on your phone.”

Beyond the cultural differences, Golvin notes, operators in Japan and South Korea also took a very different approach to adding new content to their upgraded 3G networks. In these markets, operators have allowed third-party Internet developers and other content creators to develop content for their mobile subscribers. By contrast, U.S. operators have kept their networks closed, restricting what content users can access.

“NTT DoCoMo’s approach was to let a thousand flowers bloom,” Golvin said. “They were happy just to get revenue from the usage of their network, and they allowed subscribers to dictate which services they wanted to use. But in the U.S., it’s a very top-down market, which limits the types of applications that consumers will be able to try.”